



| Solar Subsidies What Do They Mean? I wonder what the arguments and discussions were concerning the first subsidies to fossil fuels. How did the oil and coal producers convince the public that they should be given an edge over solar energy? It must have had something to do with the first machines that used fossil fuels being clumsy, inefficient mechanical foundlings that needed help in competing with conventional solar powered horses, wood fires and tallow candles. The first machines introduced into a world of organisms gained our sympathy. Today, it is hard to imagine such a situation; the world has been transformed by fossil fuel burning machines, but the subsidies—a habit left over from our days of sympathy for the mechanical newcomers—continues. The subsidies tilt the competition between solar energy and fossil fuels: prices are distorted so that people will burn gasoline in their cars’ engines rather than solar fuel in their own legs, and install electric lights rather than use natural light. Solar energy still doles out unearned aid to fossil fuels. The size of the subsidy is not as serious a problem as the misunderstanding. No one remembers that the organic world subsidized the machines. We arranged the economy so the machines could get extra help. Can anyone believe it now, when the agents of the machines begin talking about a subsidy to solar energy? It’s as if Junior knew you were about to cut off his allowance, but before the idea becomes clear to you, the brazen kid proposes that he solve your financial problem by giving you an allowance. Go along with this plan, and you find that it is hard to earn your own money back. Solar powered Mother Nature produced and nurtured the oil powered machine. Recently, the oil powered machine and its agents decided to return the favor. If solar energy is to get back part of its subsidy to machines, solar energy must be used mechanically. Planting a shade tree isn’t quite what the machines meant by using solar energy to provide cooling. Another kind of tree, a metal rack with glass covered silicone leaves that sends electricity to a mechanical chiller is what the machines mean by solar energy, so the latter is eligible for subsidy, but the tree isn’t. (For an interesting essay from the 1840s on competition between daylight and candles, see Frederic Bastiat’s “A Petition” in Economic Sophisms. In New Mexico, the most successful of the solar heating companies is Solar Age Manufacturing, which makes an air collector. Their prices, divided by their yearly energy yield, are at least as favorable as the average piece of solar equipment sold today. Their collectors are 37 sq. ft., and yield an average of 30,500 Btu/day in sunny Albuquerque; their installed price is $1,595. I have taken these figures from their salesmen. In Albuquerque you can use such a system for 200 days a year. At 30,500 Btu/day, this would then be 6.1 x 106 BtuJyear. A therm of natural gas costs $.70; the solar heater saves $42.70 per year in gas, but the 90W fan operating six hours a day, 200 days a year uses 108 kWhJyear, which at $.085/kWh costs $9.18 per year. The net savings is then $33.52 per year. With the tax credits paying 65% of the $1,595, the customer only pays $558.25 while the rest of the taxpayers pay the other $1, 036.75. Dividing $558.25 by $33.52, the simple payback is 16.65 years to the customer. When every house has such a heater, then despite tax credits, every household will have paid the full $1,595. The simple payback is then $1,595 divided by $33.52, or 47.6 years. These figures assume that the heaters are displacing natural gas which is widely distributed in New Mexico. If we use electricity, the payback is 3.56 times faster, or 13.37 years, and again, the customer’s simple payback is 4.67 years. Without tax credits, I think it is safe to assume that anyone using natural gas would never consider making such a buy, and probably very few people using electricity would do so. Of course, by assuming different rates of escalation of fuel prices, you can make these figures say anything you want. One of the worst features of the tax credits is that the public is not investing its money in efficiency such as using better insulation or more carefully designed homes. The only guardian of the public’s wealth is the homeowner who spends $.35 of his own for every $.65 of the public’s money. He is tempted to be careless because of this arrangement, and is also likely to buy more than necessary; since it isn’t often you can buy something that costs $1,000 for $350. In another field I don’t understand, third party financing, I read about the UEC Corporation, which is building huge PV power plants with investors ready to finance more. The investors are evidently making money. The PV plants cost $16/watt. I calculate that each watt might produce 2.5 kWh/year at $.10 per kwh; that is a return of $.25 per year on an investment of $16—a simple payback of 64 years. Soon we will see other amazing investments such as a 1,000 watt solar bio-machine. If I sell it to you for $18,000, you pay $6,000 down and the non-recourse installment note is $12,000 payable in semi-annual payments of $60 for 100 years at 1% simple interest, the tax credits are: |